@Article{DalcinBrMaTiPaKu:2023:RoReRe,
               author = "Dalcin, Ana Paula and Br{\^e}da, Jo{\~a}o Paulo Lyra Fialho and 
                         Marques, Guilherme Fernandes and Tilmant, Amaury and Paiva, 
                         Rodrigo Cauduro Dias de and Kubota, Paulo Yoshio",
          affiliation = "{Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS)} and 
                         {Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS)} and 
                         {Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS)} and 
                         {Universit{\'e} Laval} and {Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do 
                         Sul (UFRGS)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais 
                         (INPE)}",
                title = "The role of reservoir reoperation to mitigate climate change 
                         impacts on hydropower and environmental water demands",
              journal = "Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management",
                 year = "2023",
               volume = "149",
               number = "4",
                pages = "e0403005",
                month = "Apr.",
             keywords = "Climate change, Environmental flow recovery, Fish recruitment, 
                         Flow regime change, Reservoir operation, Water resources 
                         management.",
             abstract = "Adapting reservoir operation to a changing climate is important to 
                         improve water system performance toward benefits including water 
                         security, and energy production. However, managers still need to 
                         know if and how reoperation can also assist long-Term mitigation 
                         of climate change impacts on aquatic ecosystems, creating, for 
                         example, opportunities to revert fish migration and recruitment 
                         losses. This paper investigates the operational adaptive capacity 
                         of water systems to mitigate climate change impacts on both 
                         hydropower and aquatic ecosystems, with a detailed representation 
                         of fish species recruitment response to flow regime changes. The 
                         methodology framework combines hydroclimatic modeling, explicit 
                         stochastic reservoir operation modeling, and predictive modeling 
                         of migratory fish recruitment abundance, illustrated using the 
                         large-scale hydropower system of the Paran{\'a} River Basin in 
                         Brazil. Results identified that operating policies can be adapted 
                         to improve hydropower production under a changing climate with 
                         drier conditions by 2% to 8% compared with current operating 
                         policies. Although insufficient to eliminate all energy losses 
                         that climate change may cause, the optimized operation provided 
                         flexibility to adjust flow releases and reduce the likelihood of 
                         future severe multiyear deficits, which are very harmful to fish 
                         populations. Adapting operation to climate change sacrificed fish 
                         recruitment performance over a few years of the time horizon to 
                         maintain an overall higher storage, but it also improved the 
                         chances of producing flow releases in magnitude, timing, and 
                         duration during long drier periods that prevented more severe 
                         impacts of climate change on fish recruitment and population. This 
                         indicates that it might be possible to have synergies in adapting 
                         reservoir operation to not only prevent energy losses, but also to 
                         improve fish recruitment under climate change. The ecosystem 
                         resiliency under adapted operation increased up to 2 times 
                         compared with the isolated climate change effect.",
                  doi = "10.1061/JWRMD5.WRENG-5810",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1061/JWRMD5.WRENG-5810",
                 issn = "0733-9496",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "JWRMD5.WRENG-5810.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "04 maio 2024"
}